Dance keeps city riding for NDP

Elmwood—Transcona stayed NDP orange in Monday’s byelection as candidate Leila Dance took the early lead during a tight race with the Tory candidate — who kept a low-profile throughout the campaign — and hung onto it.

Dance, the former executive director of the Transcona Business Improvement Zone, beat Conservative party candidate Colin Reynolds, a construction electrician, to become the east Winnipeg riding’s next member of Parliament.

Dance told a raucous gathering of supporters she was confident of victory.

“I will fight for Elmwood-Transcona, I will fight for Canadians.” she said. “I promise to make you all so proud of me, and I will see you in Ottawa.”

Dance wiped away tears after her arms were raised in victory amid cheers. Her voice wavered with emotion while she thanked those who backed her.

“To everyone who supported me, who held my hand, who patted my back, who held me up again — I couldn’t have done this without you,” she said.

The NDP had just 24 seats in Parliament heading into the vote.

With 180 of 191 polls reporting, Dance had 10,811 votes to Reynolds’ 9,552 votes. The Liberal vote appeared to collapse as candidate Ian MacIntyre had just 1,056 votes, or 4.8 per cent of the vote, compared to the party’s showing of 14.7 per cent in the 2021 election.

Dance will be the first female MP for Elmwood—Transcona. The seat has mostly been held by the NDP since its creation in 1988. The byelection was triggered by the resignation of NDP MP Daniel Blaikie, who became an adviser to Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew in April.

The Green party’s Nicolas Geddert got 287 votes, People’s Party of Canada candidate Sarah Couture received 290, and the Canadian Future Party’s Zbig Strycharz managed to sway 100 voters.

As of 11:30 p.m., unofficial voter turnout was 30.55 per cent. It was the lowest turnout for any general election or byelection in the riding. Voter turnout was almost 60 per cent in the 2021 general election, when the NDP defeated the Conservatives by more than 9,000 votes.

Preliminary data showed 10,032 voters, or about 14 per cent of all eligible voters, cast advance ballots. With a blue-collar reputation, the riding has 72,325 eligible voters, and a population of 101,691 as of the 2021 census.

Elmwood—Transcona was one of two byelections held Monday. The other was in the Montreal constituency of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, where a record 91 candidates were on the ballot, fuelled by a protest of Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system. A winner had not yet been declared as of press time.

Elmwood—Transcona was tipped to be a two-party race, as the NDP and Tories sought to gain momentum ahead of the next general election, which must be held on or before Oct. 20, 2025.

Backed by labour groups, Dance campaigned on NDP pledges to make life more affordable and improve health care. A loss could have been a blow to Leader Jagmeet Singh’s leadership.

The Tories chose Reynolds, a union member, while trying to appeal to the working class in a campaign that attacked the now-defunct supply-and-confidence agreement between the NDP and minority Liberal government.

Singh, who ended the two-year-old deal Sept. 4, tried to distance himself from Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday, as MPs returned from a summer break.

Opinion polls suggest the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives have surged ahead of the Liberals and NDP, while support slides for Trudeau, who’s been prime minister since 2015.

The NDP has won all but one election in Elmwood—Transcona, formerly Winnipeg—Transcona, since the riding was first contested. Blaikie’s late father, Bill Blaikie, was the riding’s MP from 1988 to 2008. The Tories won the seat with a razor-thin margin in 2011, but lost it to the NDP in 2015.

If Dance is victorious, the NDP will hold three of Manitoba’s 14 seats in the House of Commons. Dance would join Niki Ashton (Churchill—Keewatinook Aski) and Leah Gazan (Winnipeg Centre).

For the next general election, Elmwood—Transcona will undergo a boundary expansion that could aid the Conservatives. The riding will absorb part of the Rural Municipality of Springfield, including Dugald — a move that Daniel Blaikie opposed while in office.

Manitoba’s boundary commission said the move was necessary to balance Elmwood—Transcona with the population of neighbouring Provencher. While justifying its decision, the commission said territory around and including Dugald “is close to and has links with Transcona.”

chris.kitching@freepress.mb.ca

Chris Kitching
Reporter

Chris Kitching is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He began his newspaper career in 2001, with stops in Winnipeg, Toronto and London, England, along the way. After returning to Winnipeg, he joined the Free Press in 2021, and now covers a little bit of everything for the newspaper. Read more about Chris.

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