It’s no surprise Wab Kinew remains the most popular premier in Canada, despite the recent controversy surrounding MLA Mark Wasyliw, who was ousted from the NDP caucus Monday.
It’s likely because few people care much about internal bickering between politicians.
The Manitoba premier has a 66 per cent approval rating, according to an Angus Reid Institute poll released Thursday. It’s grown since December when Kinew’s approval rating was 57 per cent.
MIKAELA MACKENZIE / FREE PRESS FILES
Internal bickering between politicians is unlikely to affect Premier Wab Kinew’s popularity rating, Tom Brodbeck writes.
That’s not surprising for any new premier. Kinew, who’s been in office just under a year, is still enjoying a honeymoon period. It would take a lot more than the expulsion of an MLA from caucus to change that.
Wasyliw was removed from caucus Monday after NDP MLAs learned of his links to a law firm that represented convicted rapist Peter Nygard. While that justification is problematic on many fronts, it’s not the only reason the Fort Garry MLA got the boot.
Several NDP MLAs said Thursday that Wasyliw was disrespectful to colleagues and exhibited behaviour unbecoming of an MLA. NDP caucus chairman Mike Moyes said this week the Nygard link was “the straw that broke the camel’s back.”
The MLA for Riel said caucus members repeatedly met with Wasyliw over the past year to urge him to address his behaviour.
“Unfortunately, he continued to demonstrate a pattern of deceit and disrespect that was harmful to our team,” said Moyes.
That’s a very different picture than the one Wasyliw tried to paint this week when he alleged Kinew treats MLAs and staff with disrespect.
“(Kinew) is very demeaning to staff and MLAs when he talks to them,” Wasyliw said Monday after he was punted from caucus. “He will run them down — very disrespectful. The man couldn’t pass a respectful workplace review.”
The problem for Wasyliw is he’s still the only one making those allegations, which raises questions about the veracity of his accusations. The fact he never said anything before, or reported his leader’s alleged mistreatment of staff and MLAs until he was kicked out of caucus, remains suspect.
Does the public really care either way? Probably not. When it comes to provincial politics, people are more concerned about issues that affect their lives directly, like the quality of health care and education, whether they have good paying jobs and how safe (or unsafe) they feel in their communities.
Political sniping between elected officials doesn’t score very high on the public priority meter.
Which is why it’s not surprising that the latest dust up between the NDP caucus and Wasyliw doesn’t appear to have hurt Kinew’s popularity. Granted, some respondents in the poll were surveyed before the NDP expelled Wasyliw. Others were surveyed after the announcement was made.
Either way, the issue appeared to have no impact on Kinew’s approval rating, which is up three percentage points from 63 per cent in June.
Those numbers will eventually fall once Kinew’s honeymoon period is over but that won’t happen for awhile. The public usually gives new governments a chance to make good on their election commitments. If they succeed and remain relatively scandal free, new governments can remain popular for extended periods of time, as former NDP premier Gary Doer’s government did from 1999 to 2009.
Conversely, if the quality of health care in Manitoba doesn’t improve before the next provincial election (scheduled for 2027), crime gets worse and the economy softens, Kinew’s numbers would almost certainly fall. Barring a political catastrophe, though, it probably wouldn’t be enough for an NDP defeat.
New governments have to falter pretty badly to get the boot after one term in office. It hasn’t happened in Manitoba since the one-term government of former Tory premier Sterling Lyon, who served as first minister from 1977 to 1981.
Wasyliw isn’t the first MLA to get expelled from caucus. It’s not that unusual in Canada’s parliamentary system. If you can’t get along with your caucus colleagues and/or your behaviour doesn’t meet party standards, caucus has every right to kick you out.
Former NDP MLA Mohinder Saran was removed from caucus in 2017 after allegations he verbally sexually harassed a staff person. Steven Fletcher, the former MLA for Assiniboia, was booted from the Tory caucus later that year after he was frequently at odds with his caucus colleagues.
Former Tory MLA Cliff Graydon was expelled from caucus in 2018 after he was accused of making inappropriate comments to two female staff members.
It happens. And for the most part, the public doesn’t seem to care much.
tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca
Tom Brodbeck
Columnist
Tom Brodbeck is a columnist with the Free Press and has over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.
Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.
Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber.
Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.