The Conservative Party of Canada is gaining ground in Manitoba, according to a new public opinion poll. But it wouldn’t be enough to change the political landscape much across the province if a federal election were held today.
Half of Manitoba voters would vote for the Conservatives, according to a Probe Research poll released Tuesday. That’s a significant gain over the 39 per cent popular vote the party drew in the 2021 federal election.
Trouble is, most of the gains for the Conservatives are coming from outside of Winnipeg, where the party already holds five of six seats. If Kildonan-St. Paul (which is partially outside the city) is included, the Tories hold six of seven non-Winnipeg seats.
ADRIAN WYLD / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES
The problem for leader Pierre Poilievre: the Conservatives don’t sell as well in Winnipeg as they do in rural Manitoba.
The problem for the party and its ultra-right leader Pierre Poilievre is they don’t sell as well in Winnipeg as they do in rural Manitoba.
Overall, the Conservatives are more popular than either the Liberals or NDP in Winnipeg, but that support is concentrated in a few suburban areas.
Even though the Conservatives drew 38 per cent of the popular vote in Winnipeg in the 2021 federal election, they won only one seat (Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley), two if Kildonan-St. Paul is included.
According to the Probe poll, the Tories have inched up to 40 per cent popular vote in Winnipeg. But that likely won’t translate into more than one — possibly two — blue seats.
The Conservatives’ best chances are in Winnipeg South, currently held by Liberal MP Terry Duguid, and Elmwood-Transcona, which the NDP barely hung onto in last week’s hotly contested byelection.
The Liberals won Winnipeg South in 2021 with 47.5 per cent of the vote versus the Tories’ 33.8 per cent. It’s large gap to bridge, but it’s definitely in play for the Conservatives. A lot has changed since 2021 and not in the Liberals’ favour. The time-for-a-change momentum continues to grow.
The NDP retained Elmwood-Transcona in the byelection, but not by much — 48.2 per cent compared to 44 per cent for the Tories; much closer than in 2021 when the NDP won with 49.7 per cent of the vote, compared with the Conservatives’ 28.1 per cent.
Still, byelections don’t usually tell us much about voting patterns because voter turnout is typically lower and people aren’t voting for a government.
Beyond those two possible pickups, there isn’t much left for the Tories in Winnipeg, not unless the party can find a way to grow its popularity in a largely centrist city.
Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, held by Liberal MP Dan Vandal, isn’t out of the question for the Conservatives. But the popular vote gap (43.8 per cent for the Liberals versus 28 per cent for the Tories in 2021) is slightly larger than in Winnipeg South. Vandal is also relatively popular and holds a cabinet post.
The Liberal-Conservative popular vote gap was even larger in Winnipeg South Centre in 2021. And it grew to 55.5 per cent for the Liberals in last year’s byelection compared with 23.7 per cent for the Tory candidate. But again, byelections have different dynamics than general elections.
It’s highly unlikely the Conservatives could snatch Winnipeg North from Liberal MP Kevin Lamoureux, who won in 2021 with 52.3 per cent of the vote. The Tories have historically done poorly in that riding and drew just 13.1 per cent of the vote in 2021.
Similarly, Winnipeg Centre, which tends to vote on the far left of the political spectrum (usually NDP) is not in play for the Conservatives.
Could the party take Churchill—Keewatinook Aski in the North? Anything is possible but it’s highly unlikely. The NDP won that riding in 2021 with 42.6 per cent of the vote compared with 24.2 per cent for the Conservatives. If the Liberals continue to bleed votes there, most of that support would likely go to the NDP.
As always, public opinion polls capture only a moment in time. Canada may still be a year away from a general election, depending how long opposition parties plan to prop up the minority Liberal government. A lot could change between now and then.
Should the Conservatives continue to gain ground in Manitoba, particularly in Winnipeg, they could pick up two or three more seats. Should that happen, the Liberals would be almost wiped off the electoral map in Manitoba.
Whatever the case, things are not looking good for the governing party.
tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca
Tom Brodbeck
Columnist
Tom Brodbeck is a columnist with the Free Press and has over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.
Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.
Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber.
Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.