The most surprising thing about last week’s Probe Research poll on Manitoba politics is not so much that the NDP is more popular today than when it formed government nearly a year ago.
It’s that the party now has greater support than the PCs outside of Winnipeg, something not seen in this province for a very long time and one that is likely sending a chill through the ranks of Tory strategists.
According to the Probe poll, the NDP now has the overall support of 56 per cent of Manitobans, up 11 percentage points from the Oct. 3, 2023 provincial election. Tory support, meanwhile, dropped to 34 per cent from 42 per cent.
It’s an impressive gain for the NDP after a year in office and one that is not easily achieved.
When the Tories were last in government, they saw their support drop from 53 per cent to 43 per cent after their first year in office, between 2016 and 2017.
The Tories were re-elected in 2019, but they lost four seats and never regained that level of peak popularity
Still, the PC party maintained its strong support outside of Winnipeg — including during the last election — something it has traditionally relied on to win elections.
But for the first time in years, that support is slipping and it’s shifting mostly to the NDP (a small amount has gone to the fledgling Keystone party).
The way politics works in Manitoba is when the Tories can at least tie the NDP in Winnipeg in popular support, they usually win government, as long as they maintain their traditional (and usually overwhelming) lead in rural Manitoba.
When the NDP has the lead in Winnipeg (home to about two-thirds of the seats in the legislative assembly), it typically wins government.
So when the NDP surpasses the Tories outside of Winnipeg (and maintains its commanding lead in Winnipeg), it represents a massive shift in voting patterns in Manitoba.
According to the poll, the NDP has seen its support jump 12 percentage points outside of Winnipeg, from 36 per cent to 48 per cent per cent since the election. Tory support outside the capital city has fallen dramatically from 56 per cent during the election to 43 per cent. That is a rare occurrence in Manitoba politics.
At the same time, the poll shows the NDP is now tied with the Tories in support among male voters, another departure from the norm, as the PCs are usually more popular among men than the NDP. Premier Wab Kinew is obviously resonating not only with rural voters but also with men.
“While the political environment will certainly become more challenging as time goes on, the NDP’s popularity continues to increase nearly one year after taking office,” Probe Research wrote in its polling analysis.
“This speaks to its leader’s ability to generate goodwill among Manitobans of all different backgrounds — including groups that do not traditionally vote NDP, including men, older Manitobans and rural residents.”
The upshot is there are now several Tory constituencies outside of Winnipeg that are in play for the NDP in the next election.
Chief among them would be Brandon West, which the Tories won by only 89 votes in the 2023 election. The NDP has held that seat in the past and could take it again if it maintains support outside of Winnipeg
Selkirk, which the NDP also once held (and had hoped to regain last year), is another constituency in the party’s sights. The Tories won that seat with 28.99 per cent support versus 26.24 per cent for the NDP.
Interlake-Gimli is also now a possibility for the NDP. The Tories won that seat by 683 votes in last year’s election, but could be at risk of losing it, should the NDP’s rural numbers hold.
Granted, that’s a big “if.” The next election isn’t until 2027. Three years is a very long time in politics and a lot could go wrong for the NDP during that period. But a lot could go right, too, for the party, as it has after one year in government.
Combined with the fact the NDP took Tuxedo from the Tories in a June byelection (a Winnipeg seat the NDP never held previously), the latest rural numbers show the NDP could grow its seat count in the next provincial election.
The NDP won 34 seats in 2023, the Tories 22. However, the party did not do well outside of Winnipeg. The NDP carried the election by almost sweeping Winnipeg. That may be about to change if the party continues to appeal to rural voters.
tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca
Tom Brodbeck
Columnist
Tom Brodbeck is a columnist with the Free Press and has over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.
Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.
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