For a health-care system that already operates at near-disastrous levels, a strike by front-line workers would have plunged hospital and home-care services into absolute chaos.
With emergency room wait times at near-record levels, chronic shortages of staffed hospital beds, embarrassingly long wait times for so-called “elective” surgeries (ask anyone waiting two years in pain for hip or knee surgery just how “elective” it is) and spotty home-care coverage, a strike would have made an already dysfunctional health-care system unbearable.
Which is precisely why the provincial government decided at the last minute — just hours before more than 25,000 support workers represented by CUPE and MGEU were set to walk off the job Tuesday morning — to loosen the purse strings and sweeten the pot for front-line staff.
“At 4:25 a.m. this morning the CUPE and MGEU bargaining teams reached a tentative agreement which will see significant improvements,” a message on CUPE Manitoba’s website said early Tuesday. “Locals will be reaching out to you soon with details of the tentative agreement and when you can vote on it. The strike is therefore postponed pending the results of the ratification vote.”
A strike would have affected virtually all aspects of hospital services. Although contingency plans were in place to ensure “the sickest and most injured patients are prioritized,” according to Shared Health, a strike would have significantly impacted patient flow through hospitals, causing already congested emergency departments to bust at the seams.
Patient flow through hospitals relies on a wide range of front-line staff, not just doctors and nurses. Without the support of workers such as health-care aides and housekeeping staff (who prepare hospital beds for incoming patients) the entire system would have slowed to a crawl. That would have been disastrous for a health-care system already on the brink of collapse.
That’s why the NDP government, which has vowed to “fix health care” in part by listening to and supporting front-line workers, pulled out all the stops overnight and ensured there would be no work stoppage. There was no choice.
The consequences of a strike of that magnitude, even with the essential services provisions in place (which are minimal), would have been deep and long-lasting.
Cancellations of elective surgeries alone would have been felt for months, maybe years, which would have been bad news for a province already saddled with some of the longest surgical wait times in the country.
The NDP government was not about to let that happen, even though the day before the Tuesday strike deadline, union officials said they were “nowhere near” reaching a deal.
The province was trying to nickel and dime support workers because it’s in a financial pickle, most of which is self-inflicted. After both the former Tory government and current NDP government cut hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes over the past few years, the province has significantly less money to work with when funding health care and other front-line services.
Since labour makes up the majority of costs in health care (and most other front-line services), multi-year collective agreements of this size have a significant impact on the province’s finances.
Considering the Manitoba government is already running a $796-million deficit this year, it’s easy to see why the NDP had hoped to limit their liability on this contract — but not at any cost. The province was not about to see the health-care system fall into further disarray, even if that meant paying front-line workers with money it doesn’t have. The political price would have been too high.
So government will borrow more. The province is already projecting to borrow $2.4 billion in 2024-25 for general government purposes and capital investment, such as infrastructure. That will be added to the province’s $35.4-billion net summary debt, which has ballooned 35 per cent from $26.2 billion five years ago. Taxpayers will pay an estimated $2.3 billion to service that debt this year.
These financial pressures will only continue to grow. And the province is not well positioned to handle them. The economy is not growing fast enough to produce the level of revenues Manitoba needs to get out of deficit, not unless it significantly curtails spending. With pressures in health care, education, justice and social services continuing to grow, that kind of austerity would create substantial distress across the province — the kind that doesn’t bode well for governments looking to get re-elected.
The smartest thing the NDP could do is put a moratorium on any further tax cuts and do everything in its power to stimulate economic growth (so the economic horse can pull the social cart, as Premier Wab Kinew is fond of saying).
There will be more cost pressures such as the one the province is now facing with this new, proposed collective agreement (workers still have to ratify it). For now, the NDP government does not seem well-prepared to weather them.
tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca
Tom Brodbeck
Columnist
Tom Brodbeck is a columnist with the Free Press and has over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.
Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.
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