Border community of Emerson fears surge in refuge seekers post election

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Next month’s U.S. election is top of mind in the border community of Emerson, as some worry the outcome could lead to a surge of people heading north as the weather starts to turn cold.

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“For myself and some of my councillors, and for the community there is a general belief that there will be an influx of people crossing after the election,” said Dave Carlson, the Reeve of Emerson-Franklin on Monday. Only 14 days remain before American voters go to the polls to determine whether current Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will serve as the next U.S. president.

Emerson-Franklin is home to the Pembina–Emerson Border Crossing. Carlson has been keeping a close eye on the battle for the White House because he said the results will have “real-world” implications on his community.

Carlson says there is now a real concern that former President Trump’s threats of mass deportation during his campaign could send those concerned about the possibility of being deported north to seek asylum. This could result in a sudden surge of refuge seekers at the border, should Trump take back the White House on Nov. 5.

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“He is threatening deportation, and he’s been very clear about that, so I think it’s a given that if Donald Trump wins we will see a surge of crossings at the border,” Carlson said.

With Americans currently very politically divided, he believes there will likely be an uptick of people trying to leave the U.S. should Harris win the presidency.

“I really think we’re going to see a surge regardless of the outcome,” Carlson said.

Carlson also works as a volunteer firefighter in the community. With frigid Manitoba weather around the corner, he shared his concern about the risks refuge seekers could face and the stress such an influx could have on local emergency workers.

“When people come from a warmer climate they just can’t even comprehend or fathom this kind of cold, and you can fall victim to it very quickly if you aren’t prepared for it, or if you get lost,” he said.

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“We will always help people, but there is that concern when you have something like a blizzard or really rough dangerous terrain and you have to send people out on a search and rescue mission, because it can turn dangerous very quickly.”

A tragic incident in Emerson in January of 2022 saw Jagdish Patel, 39, Vaishaliben Patel, 37, and the couple’s 11 and 3-year-old children freeze to death in a field just meters from the U.S border. The family, who were originally from India, attempted to enter the U.S. from Canada to seek asylum, walking in temperatures that reached -35 degrees Celsius.

“There are real and serious hazards that come with this,” Carlson said.

Carlson wants to hear more from the federal government and from the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) on if the feds have a plan to assist border communities should migrant crossings into Canada increase after Nov. 5.

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“As a council we have very little power other than to help those that need our assistance and to shelter them, which we will always do, we will always help people and show compassion,” Carlson said. “But I hope that the federal government is aware of what might be coming, because it will certainly stretch our resources.

“We need to know if there is a plan because we are the ones on the frontlines of this issue.”

In an email, a Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) spokesperson said that the federal government “will not speculate on how foreign political outcomes may or may not impact irregular migration trends.”

“What we can tell you is that the CBSA is experienced in working with domestic and United States law enforcement partners in a joint effort to counter irregular migration and assist with investigations,” the spokesperson said.

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“These partners include the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), U.S Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Homeland Security Investigations, the United States Coast Guard, and other Canadian police agencies, as well as the provincial and territorial governments.

“We work closely on an ongoing basis to ensure border security with the goal to push the borders out and limit the activities of migrant smuggling and trafficking networks.”

— Dave Baxter is a Local Journalism Initiative reporter who works out of the Winnipeg Sun. The Local Journalism Initiative is funded by the Government of Canada.

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