On Monday afternoon, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre taunted the other parties in the House of Commons, challenging them to defeat the Liberal government and trigger an election he is sure he would win.
“Why not let Canadians choose a common-sense Conservative government that will axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime now?” Poilievre said with a wry grin on the first day back from Parliament’s summer break.
That comment was echoed in an address to his caucus over last weekend. “Canadians cannot wait. They need to vote now for common-sense Conservatives,” Poilievre said.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre addresses his caucus on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Sunday. (Spencer Colby / The Canadian Press files)
Poilievre’s gratuitous confidence is not necessarily misplaced. If an election were held right now, seat projections show he would win a majority mandate.
But a funny thing happened to Poilievre’s self-coronation: about 12 hours later, he found out his party was not quite as invincible as he might have thought, coming up short in two key byelections.
The Bloc Québécois was a somewhat surprising winner in the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, edging out the Liberals by just 250 votes and stealing a seat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau desperately needed to win. The Conservatives, revealing their inherent weakness in Quebec, were a very distant fourth.
In Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona, however, Conservatives boasted frequently about stealing a seat from the NDP, a party the Tories portrayed as unworthy of support because of the supply and confidence deal it signed to keep the governing Liberals in power. The Tories took direct aim at NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, dubbing him “Sellout Singh” for his decision to make a supply and confidence deal with the Liberals to keep them in power.
But all of Poilievre’s bluster and name-calling couldn’t get the job done, as the NDP held firm and retained Elmwood-Transcona.
What does it all mean? It would be absurd to read too much into the byelection results, given that in both ridings voter turnout was just below 40 per cent.
Still, it is hard to ignore the contrast between Poilievre’s arrogance throughout the byelection campaigns and the lack of effort the Tories put into Elmwood-Transcona.
Despite having a real chance to win the riding, and knock out another leg from Singh’s already wobbly chair, Poilievre largely ignored the riding during the campaign proper. And the Conservative candidate, Colin Reynolds, maintained a relatively low profile.
Despite the Tories trumpeting the fact that Reynolds was an executive member at a large union — something that was supposed to win over the riding’s working-class voters — he was a no-show at the annual Labour Day parade.
And when all the votes were counted, and Dance had triumphed over Reynolds, a Conservative spokesperson dismissed the importance of the result and — quite oddly — the riding itself.
Longtime Conservative strategist Ginny Roth, who served as Poilievre’s communications director during his leadership campaign, told the Globe and Mail that Elmwood-Transcona “is not a seat that the Conservatives need to win to form government.” Many Manitobans suspect that Canada’s federal political parties see this province as an afterthought; it is odd to see someone from one of those parties admit that publicly.
Meanwhile, the NDP showed that when it really needed to, the party could defend its turf. Singh seemingly took up residence in the Winnipeg riding, canvassing almost daily with candidate Leila Dance and doing multiple public events each week of the campaign.
It should be noted the New Democrats also had a real shot at winning LaSalle-Émard-Verdun as well, with candidate Craid Sauvé coming in a very close third, just 600 votes behind BQ candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé and only 380 votes behind Liberal Laura Palestini. But retaining Elmwood-Transcona was always the priority.
Going forward, the win in Winnipeg will help Singh quiet some of the internal discontent over his party’s lacklustre performance since the 2021 election. The NDP did not perform well in that vote, and today the party still cannot count on the support of more than 20 per cent of decided voters.
It certainly didn’t help that Singh’s decision to enter a formal agreement to support the minority Liberal government made the NDP a frequent target of Poilievre’s relentless and toxic attack campaign. As Trudeau’s fortunes have fallen — and right now the Liberals are looking at the very real possibility of a complete implosion in the next election — Singh seemed to be getting dragged down as well.
There is no significant reason to believe these byelection results will have any impact on the macro forces in Canadian politics.
Poilievre and the Conservatives are still riding high in the minds of voters. Trudeau, meanwhile, remains leader of a party suffering from a deeply damaged brand.
And what of Singh and the NDP?
Beating back the Tory barbarians at the Elmwood-Transcona gates does not guarantee success for Singh in the next election, which could come as early as this fall if Poilievre follows through with a threat to introduce a confidence motion in the House of Commons at the first opportunity.
But on one night in one byelection, in a riding the Tories had apparently dismissed as unimportant in their grander electoral plans, the NDP are celebrating.
dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com
Dan Lett
Columnist
Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986. Read more about Dan.
Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.
Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber.
Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.