Manitoba will feel the pinch more than most provinces from the federal government’s ill-advised plan to slash immigration numbers in 2025.
Ottawa announced in October it planned to cut the number of skilled workers coming into Canada under the provincial nominee program by 50 per cent. The federal Liberals claim they are doing so to relieve pressure on the housing market, a misguided and entirely wrongheaded decision that will do far more harm to the housing industry than good.
The move will hurt all provinces, which rely on immigration for population growth and skilled workers to fill labour shortages in a wide variety of industries.
TIM SMITH / BRANDON SUN FILES
Labour and Immigration Minister Malaya Marcelino called the provincial nominee program Manitoba’s “bread and butter.” She’s correct, Tom Brodbeck writes.
But it will hurt provinces like Manitoba, which loses more people to other provinces than it gains, the most.
Manitoba was told last week by Ottawa its allocation of skilled workers under the provincial nominee program will be chopped in half to 4,750 this year from 9,540 in 2024. Nationally, the federal government is cutting the number to 55,000 spots this year, down from 110,000 in 2024.
While Manitoba Immigration and Labour Minister Malaya Marcelino said she is negotiating with the federal government for more, it doesn’t look good.
Shortages of skilled workers have been one of the top concerns of Manitoba businesses for years. Without more people to fill key positions, companies can’t grow and new ones have difficulty getting off the ground. Manitoba’s economy suffers as a result and government has less tax revenue to pay for front-line services and expensive infrastructure.
That’s why the business community has joined forces with the province to lobby Ottawa to consider Manitoba’s unique circumstances.
Manitoba loses more people to other provinces than it gains every year and has for decades. Many people choose to move to other provinces — particularly to Alberta and British Columbia — for a variety of reasons, including job opportunities.
As a result, Manitoba relies on international immigration more than most provinces, not only for population growth but also to fill gaps in the labour market.
The provincial nominee program, created in the late 1990s, is especially important in that regard because it brings people into Manitoba with work experience who have ties to the province.
Marcelino calls it the province’s “bread and butter.” She’s right.
Manitoba posted a net loss 4,540 people to other provinces from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024. That’s down from a net loss of 9,928 for the previous 12-month period, the largest net outflow for Manitoba in at least 20 years, according to Manitoba Bureau of Statistics data.
The biggest net losses were to Alberta (3,628), followed by British Columbia (612) and Quebec (314). Manitoba recorded small gains from Ontario and the territories in 2023-24.
Per capita, Manitoba regularly has the highest, or among the highest, interprovincial migration losses in the country. Manitoba posted a net loss of 3.12 residents per thousand to other provinces in 2023-24, the second highest among the provinces behind only Saskatchewan (-4.33). Manitoba had the highest per capita net interprovincial losses among the provinces in 2022-23 at 7.03 residents per thousand.
Slashing immigration numbers to ease Canada’s housing shortage is utter nonsense. Canada needs skilled workers from around the world not only to fill labour shortages in the construction industry, but also in sectors that produce materials and other inputs that go into home building.
Fortunately, those annual losses are offset by net gains in international migration. Manitoba recorded an overall net migration gain of 37,042 people in 2023-24, down slightly from 38,851 in 2022-23.
It’s easy to see why international migration is so important to Manitoba, especially through the nominee program, which targets skilled workers and people who are more likely to remain in the province.
Cutting that back, as the federal government is planning to do, will cause more harm to Manitoba than to most other provinces.
The stated reason for the move is ludicrous. Slashing immigration numbers to ease Canada’s housing shortage is utter nonsense. Canada needs skilled workers from around the world not only to fill labour shortages in the construction industry, but also in sectors that produce materials and other inputs that go into home building.
The federal Liberals’ decision to cut immigration numbers is nothing more than a political reaction to misleading populist sentiment that immigration is fueling Canada’s housing shortage and is putting undue pressure on provinces to provide front-line services.
It’s nonsense. The very immigrants who move into homes in Canada, particularly those coming in through the nominee program, and who use front-line services are the same ones who help build homes (or work in industries that support home building), who are consumers of goods and services that help boost economic growth and who pay taxes to help pay for front-line services.
The nominee program allows provinces to essentially hand pick people who can fill shortages of skilled labour in their jurisdictions. Cutting those numbers in half will hurt Manitoba immensely.
tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca
Tom Brodbeck
Columnist
Tom Brodbeck is a columnist with the Free Press and has over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.
Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.
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