Whoever becomes the next leader of the federal Liberal party could become the shortest-serving prime minister in Canadian history.
Thursday was the deadline for candidates to throw their hat into the ring to succeed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader. The party is expected to choose a new boss on March 9.
Whoever wins the race will become prime minister and will remain in that position until a new prime minister is sworn in following the next federal election, which could be called as early as the end of March.
Parliament, which was prorogued by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, resumes sitting on March 24, about two weeks after the Liberals choose a new leader. (Adrian Wyld / The Canadian Press files)
Since the Liberals have virtually no chance of winning the next election, whoever becomes prime minister after March 9 could be in office for as little as 10 weeks before handing over the reins to a new government (which will almost certainly be led by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre).
The shortest-serving prime minister in Canadian history was Sir Charles Tupper, who held office for only 10 weeks when his Conservative party was defeated in a general election in 1896.
A close second was former Liberal prime minister John Turner, who held the position for 11 weeks in 1984. The Liberals were defeated by the Progressive Conservative party that year.
Former PC prime minister Kim Campbell held the PM’s role for 123 days after taking over from her predecessor, former prime minister Brian Mulroney. The Tories were crushed in the 1993 general election, losing all but two seats.
Could we see a new record for shortest-serving prime minister after the Liberals elect their new leader? It’s possible. It depends on a few factors.
Parliament, which was prorogued by Trudeau, resumes sitting on March 24, about two weeks after the Liberals pick a new leader. All opposition parties have said they plan to defeat the government on a confidence motion at the earliest opportunity. If they do, that would likely occur the same week the house resumes sitting. Parliament would be dissolved and an election would be called immediately.
Federal election campaigns must be at least 37 days but no more than 51 days in length.
If the government were to fall, for example, on March 25, election day could be as early as May 5. If a new prime minister (Poilievre) were sworn in two weeks later on May 19, the next Liberal leader would have been in office for about 10 weeks — close to Tupper’s record.
If the election campaign is closer to 51 days, election day could land on May 12 (it must be a Monday), in which case the new Liberal leader might tie, or come close to tying, Turner’s record.
All this begs the question: why would anyone want this job if they’re simply going to be relegated to the opposition benches, likely for eight years or more, before they have a realistic shot at becoming prime minister again? Who wants to go down as the shortest-serving prime minister in Canadian history?
It seems pretty clear at this point the two leading contenders in the race are former finance minister Chrystia Freeland and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney. Both are campaigning on the pipe dream they can win the next election, which they almost certainly cannot.
As expected, the polls show the Liberals remain about 23 percentage points behind the Conservatives even after Trudeau announced his resignation. That’s because Canadians are not just disenchanted with the prime minister, they are unhappy with the Liberal party.
Perhaps Liberal leadership candidate and Government House Leader Karina Gould said it best recently: “Canadians have lost faith in our party and we have to earn back their trust.”
That will not happen in the next election. It never does for a governing party that has fallen out of favour with the public. Which means it doesn’t matter whether Trudeau, Freeland, Carney, Gould or anyone else leads the party into the next election (nor what they campaign on, be it an anti-Donald Trump agenda or an attempt to distance themselves from the Liberal carbon tax), they will be roundly defeated, as Tupper, Turner and Campbell were.
It seems unlikely that Freeland or Carney would be prepared to stick it out for eight years or more on the opposition benches to get another shot at government in 2033 or 2037 (it’s rare in modern-day Canadian politics for a federal government to serve only one term in office).
It’s more likely whoever wins the Liberal leadership race and loses the federal election will step down as party leader at some point, as Campbell did.
So why are Freeland and Carney running? Are they really under the illusion they can win the next election, or even hold the Conservatives to minority status (both of which are highly unlikely)? It’s hard to fathom.
It’s not like either of them are running to raise their profiles — both could easily land prestigious appointments outside of politics without seeking the Liberal leadership.
Do they just want to be prime minister, even if it’s just for a few weeks?
If so, one of them will probably get their wish. But they’ll also have to live with the unfortunate distinction of becoming the shortest, or one of the shortest, serving prime ministers in Canadian history.
tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca
Tom Brodbeck
Columnist
Tom Brodbeck is a columnist with the Free Press and has over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.
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