Manitobans have booked a longer honeymoon with Premier Wab Kinew.
Nearly a year after being elected premier, a new poll has found the popularity of Kinew and his NDP continues to soar.
The Free Press-Probe Research poll released Wednesday found 56 per cent of Manitobans — a jump of five percentage points since the last poll in June — support the NDP.
MIKAELA MACKENZIE / FREE PRESS FILES
Nearly a year after he was elected premier, a new poll has found the popularity of Premier Wab Kinew and his NDP continues to soar.
Support for the Progressive Conservatives has fallen to 34 per cent from 38 per cent.
The NDP’s support among Manitobans is now higher than the 45.6 per cent of the vote the party received during the Oct. 3, 2023 provincial election, which propelled them to a majority government with 34 seats. The government has since added the long-standing Tory seat of Tuxedo in a byelection after former premier Heather Stefanson stepped down.
“This is certainly a deep and solid honeymoon — and it continues,” said Probe partner Mary Agnes Welch.
“I see nothing which points to when the honeymoon will end and that point is not now.”
The honeymoon also continues for the NDP with voters who don’t normally back them — people who live outside of the Perimeter Highway and Tory supporters.
Support for the NDP has increased eight percentage points to 48 per cent across the province, not including Winnipeg. The party also finds itself ahead of the Tories, which have dropped 10 percentage points to 43 per cent since a March poll.
Four in 10 Tory supporters say Kinew is doing a good job as premier.
The poll was conducted between Sept. 5 and 15. One day after the polling ended, the Kinew government turfed MLA Mark Wasyliw from caucus, resulting in days of negative headlines. The ouster was initially blamed on Wasyliw’s connection to convicted sex offender Peter Nygard through his former law partner.
The week before, the NDP put a pause on a top-up program that helps eligible low income people pay their monthly rent.
The Canada-Manitoba Housing Benefit pays up to $422 per month to help homeless people and new Canadians afford a private apartment. The government said the pause was because of higher demand than expected and has not said when it will be lifted.
“I just don’t think these types of internal process issues resonate with most voters who are still giving the Wab Kinew government the benefit of a doubt,” said Welch.
University of Manitoba political studies Prof. Christopher Adams agreed, saying most people aren’t affected by the rent top-up pause and the Wasyliw issue will likely be forgotten by the time the next poll is taken three months from now.
Adams noted while NDP support has steadily increased in seat-rich Winnipeg, from 52 per cent in the election to the current 61 per cent, Tory support in the capital city is at 29 per cent — the same it has been during the last six months.
“It looks like the PCs have pretty much hit bottom in Winnipeg,” said Adams.
“The good news for the PCs is this comes when they haven’t had their leadership convention, after coming out of a problematic election for them, and while facing a premier who is high in popularity. The PCs have something to build on.
“It is not a disastrous poll for the PCs.”
Adams also said Kinew’s high numbers come during a time when there is a “leadership vacuum” as both the PC party and the Manitoba Liberal Party have interim leaders in Wayne Ewasko and Cindy Lamoureux, respectively.
The most surprising tidbit of the poll, Adams said, was which party men say they are supporting.
“The two parties (NDP and PC) are tied in support with men at 45 per cent,” he said. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen that happen. It is always men for the Tories and women for the NDP, but they are tied.”
Provincewide, the NDP have the support of 65 per cent of women, while the Tories are at 25 per cent.
The Liberals, left with a single seat after the election, have dropped down another two points to four per cent support.
The Keystone Party is up two per cent to three per cent while support for the Green Party and others make up the remaining two per cent from decided and leaning Manitoba voters.
The poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults has a 95 per cent certainty and its margin of error is within plus or minus 3.1 per cent.
kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca
Kevin Rollason
Reporter
Kevin Rollason is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He graduated from Western University with a Masters of Journalism in 1985 and worked at the Winnipeg Sun until 1988, when he joined the Free Press. He has served as the Free Press’s city hall and law courts reporter and has won several awards, including a National Newspaper Award. Read more about Kevin.
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