Will U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from this fall’s presidential election prompt Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to follow suit?
At first blush, it might appear to some observers that Biden’s sudden announcement has made it fashionable for political leaders to stand down in the face of internal discontent.
A closer look reveals Trudeau and Biden are not only different kinds of political animals, they are living through objectively different circumstances.
Although both leaders are (or were, in Biden’s case) facing intense pressure to stand down, the president was perhaps the more vulnerable given he suffered a lethal wound to his political fortunes when he stumbled and bumbled his way through a televised debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump last month.
Biden’s performance was so bad, it amplified concerns his cognitive acuity made him unfit to run a country.
So far, Trudeau has not suffered that kind of deep cut to his political brand.
To date, the prime minister has only had to face direct, public challenges to his leadership from a handful of Liberals, most of whom are no longer part of the federal elected caucus. A couple of sitting MPs have spoken anonymously with journalists, but to date, Trudeau has not had to face a large, public display from dissidents.
In contrast, the concerted effort to get Biden to step down became very public, very quickly.
Less than a week after the debate, Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas went public and asked Biden to withdraw. Over the next three weeks, several dozen more members of Congress would publicly join the chorus.
The calls for Biden to withdraw reached a shrill crescendo on July 10 when Hollywood icon and Democratic heavyweight fundraiser George Clooney authored a guest essay in the New York Times. The headline said it all: “I Love Joe Biden. But We Need a New Nominee.”
More importantly, perhaps, Democratic congressional leaders and former presidents remained largely silent as the mob surrounded Biden. Outside the official party machinery, major donors started withholding big cheques.
It’s a surprise Biden lasted this long.
Trudeau, on the other hand, has mostly had to fight a shadow war to remain at the helm of the party and government. There might come a time when the prime minister faces the same kinds of public challenges to his leadership, but that time is not now.
What made Biden’s decision to stand down so remarkable is that political history is littered with examples of leaders digging in when challenged.
Manitobans got a very graphic example of that phenomenon when former NDP premier Greg Selinger refused to go even after a group of his own cabinet ministers held a news conference to demand his resignation. That decision turned out to be foolish, but it serves as a good example of how stubborn leaders can be.
If the direct, public attack is rarely successful, does that mean a less direct strategy is the way to go? Not necessarily.
Timing is everything when a party is trying to take out its leader. Biden no doubt experienced an intense effort to force him out because the presidential campaign is underway; Canada’s next election is still more than a year away.
The bigger concern for Trudeau and his shrinking group of loyalists is whether the people most motivated to oust him are studying the Democratic strategy behind Biden’s ouster.
Look for two key signs that anti-Trudeau Liberals are tearing a page out of the Democratic playbook. The first is the use of leaked stories or anonymous sources indicating Trudeau is having trouble raising money.
News stories in early July reported some of the Democrats’ biggest private donors were withholding money. Two days before he stepped down, the Washington Post quoted a source as saying aggrieved donors were overheard to say, “No more dough until no more Joe.”
There is no reason to believe those stories were not accurate. The sheer volume of stories quoting anonymous sources shows there was seismic pressure on Biden to step down.
The second sign the Liberals are taking a page out of the Dems’ playbook would be using high-profile party members to wade out into the public arena with kind — but unambiguous — suggestions Trudeau step down.
There have been some former cabinet ministers, chief among them, Catherine McKenna and Wayne Easter, who have asked Trudeau to leave. But so far, there have been no big stories about donors cancelling cheques, no former Liberal prime ministers voicing their concerns. Current members of the government are, for the most part, still in line.
Trudeau is clearly hoping to turn the polls in his favour and dampen the appetite for his resignation. But the PM should be aware that as he waits for divine poll intervention, his detractors will be reading the accounts of Biden’s ouster intently.
Biden has not signalled a Trudeau departure. But he has shown Liberals here how it could be done.
dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com
Dan Lett
Columnist
Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986. Read more about Dan.
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