The federal Conservatives, who are itching for an election, have snapped up increasing support in Manitoba, a new poll shows, having cashed in on widespread disillusionment with the Trudeau Liberals.
The Free Press-Probe Research poll found half of those who are decided or leaning towards a party are ready to back Pierre Poilievre, who on Tuesday introduced a non-confidence motion in the opening minutes of the House of Commons sitting and gave a rousing election-style speech.
The poll of 1,000 Manitoba voters, taken between Sept. 5 and 15, puts the governing Grits in third place in the province, as well as in Winnipeg.
“It seems to be getting worse and worse for the Liberals in Manitoba,” said Probe Research partner Mary Agnes Welch on Tuesday.
“I think the data shows even (Kevin) Lamoureux’s (Winnipeg North) seat may just be a little more vulnerable than we usually think.”
The Elmwood—Transcona byelection on Sept. 16 offered evidence that Liberal support has cratered. The NDP’s Leila Dance won the seat by 1,182 votes over Tory Colin Reynolds as the governing party received 4.8 per cent of the vote, much lower than the almost 15 per cent it registered in the 2021 election.
“The political appeal of ‘axe the tax’ and other slogans are really taking hold here,” said Felix Mathieu, an associate professor in the University of Winnipeg department of political science, about Poilievre’s messaging on the carbon tax.
The Free Press-Probe poll found the NDP has the support of 24 per cent of voters, but even that’s down by two percentage points since the last poll in March.
Mathieu said the poll buoys the Tories and delivers a blow to the Liberals.
“It is clearly going up for the Conservatives and down for the Liberals and, when you look at the NDP, they are doing better here than most places and regions in Canada,” said Mathieu.
Winnipeg Conservative MPs Marty Morantz and Raquel Dancho could not be reached to comment about their party’s increased fortunes in Manitoba.
Mathieu said it especially hurts the Liberals that only 49 per cent of Manitobans who were polled, who had cast ballots for the party in 2021, currently support them.
“That, to Justin Trudeau, must be very concerning. Even people who voted for them last time aren’t supporting them now.”
The poll reports the Tories have 63 per cent support in rural and northern Manitoba, (a leap of 10 per cent from its 53 per cent showing in 2021), while in Winnipeg they are at 40 per cent, up two percentage points from 2021.
Since 2021, the Liberals have dropped three percentage points to 14 per cent in rural and northern Manitoba and to 26 per cent in Winnipeg.
The NDP is not only in second place across the province, it’s second in Winnipeg, with 30 per cent, while in rural and northern Manitoba it has 16 per cent support.
Mathieu said if there’s a bright spot for the Liberals, it’s the 31 per cent they scored in St. Vital, Charleswood, Waverley West and North Kildonan and includes the ridings held by Lamoureux and Terry Duguid. However, he noted the Conservatives are still ahead at 40 per cent there, while the NDP is at 27 per cent.
“Gender, age, income, region, education — everyone is now voting in a greater percentage for the Conservatives,” said Mathieu. “Only the (LGBTTQ+) is where the Conservatives aren’t the first option.
“Maybe one Liberal will be re-elected.”
While that was his assessment, Winnipeg Liberal MP Dan Vandal, the northern affairs minister, admitted “we’ve lost a little ground since the last poll,” but appeared to take it in stride.
“I’m not overly concerned. I’m very confident going into the next election,” he insisted.
“You’re going to have the Liberal vision and you’re going to have the Pierre Poilievre Conservative vision, which is simply to cut, cut and cut.”
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre greets one of hundreds of people who filled a conference room at the Canada Inns Club Regent Casino Hotel in July for an Axe The Tax rally. (John Woods / Free Press files)
Vandal repeated Liberal talking points about the dental care program, health care and climate change.
“People aren’t talking about an election now… people aren’t looking at the choices,” he said. “I think that will become a lot clearer, not only to the voters, but to the public, what choice they have the closer the election comes.”
He predicted the Grits will hang on to their four seats in Manitoba.
Lamoureux and Duguid also expressed skepticism about the poll.
“The really telling point will be when the election is called,” said Lamoureux, noting he has retrieved his election signs from storage.
“In 2015, we were in third place in the polls and in a relatively short period of time we converted third place to a majority government… but (the poll) is something we should pay attention to and appreciate we need to work harder at communicating.”
Duguid, who noted the 338Canada.com average of various polls listed all four Winnipeg Liberal seats as “safe or likely safe,” said the Free Press-Probe poll is “a decline, but not a precipitous drop.”
“I trust what I hear at the doors and what I hear is a share of criticism with government and the issues of the day, and very critical of the Conservatives. There’s a lot of concern about our health-care system and concerns about dental care and child care could be cut.”
Voting on the Tory non-confidence motion is set for Wednesday.
The poll has 95 per cent certainty and its results are within plus or minus 3.1 per cent of where they would be if the province’s entire population had been surveyed.
kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca
Kevin Rollason
Reporter
Kevin Rollason is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He graduated from Western University with a Masters of Journalism in 1985 and worked at the Winnipeg Sun until 1988, when he joined the Free Press. He has served as the Free Press’s city hall and law courts reporter and has won several awards, including a National Newspaper Award. Read more about Kevin.
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