Days before a provincial byelection, a new poll shows the New Democrats are more popular in Winnipeg now than on election day.
A Free Press-Probe Research poll shows the NDP has the support of almost six in 10 Winnipeggers, or 59 per cent, up three per cent from a poll taken in March and seven points higher than its vote percentage on Oct. 3, the night Wab Kinew became premier.
In the suburbs of Winnipeg, which includes Tuxedo, Charleswood, St. Vital, Waverley West and North Kildonan — traditional bastions of the Progressive Conservatives — the NDP has a commanding lead of 58 per cent, compared to 31 per cent for the Tories and nine per cent for the Manitoba Liberal Party.
Across the province, the NDP has the support of 51 per cent of Manitobans, up from 49 per cent in a March poll. The Tories are at 38 per cent support, one per cent higher than in March. The Liberal party is at six per cent, down two per cent from March.
Outside of Winnipeg, the Tories are still the most popular choice, with 52 per cent support (up two per cent since March), compared to the NDP’s 40 per cent (up one per cent since March).
“Wow,” said Kelly Saunders, a Brandon University associate political science professor, when she was told the poll numbers Thursday. “I’m amazed a party that has been in government for just coming up to a year — October isn’t that far off — that their numbers are oh so high. The honeymoon period is holding well and they are doing even better since the election.
“I would think they are feeling very positive for Tuxedo.”
Tuesday’s byelection in Tuxedo will fill the seat once held by former premier Heather Stefanson, who resigned from the legislature in May.
The NDP has been working overtime to knock on doors throughout the constituency because its candidate in last year’s election didn’t even campaign and came within fewer than 300 votes of Stefanson.
NDP candidate Carla Compton, an 18-year registered nurse and Tuxedo resident, is fighting against Tory candidate Lawrence Pinsky, who is a family lawyer and has also been an adjudicator on the Manitoba Human Rights Commission.
NIC ADAM / FREE PRESS
Tuesday’s provincial byelection in Tuxedo pits Progressive Conservative candidate Lawrence Pinsky against NDP candidate Carla Compton. The seat was held for years by former premier Heather Stefanson but political insiders say the NDP has a chance.
Other candidates are Jamie Flau for the Liberals and Green party Leader Janine Gibson.
Compton said she receives positive feedback from voters.
“I go out every day like I’m 50 votes behind,” she said in an interview. “Every day I feel I have earned a few more votes.
“I’m hearing from people who have identified as Liberal and Conservative in the past and say they are leaning to me or saying they are voting for me… a vote for me is sending another vote to fix health care.”
Pinsky’s campaign said the candidate was not available for an interview. A statement was provided from a spokesman.
“We know it’s a tight race, and that’s why we’re out every night listening to constituents in Tuxedo,” the statement said.
“We’re hearing that many people in Tuxedo want to send the NDP a strong message about violence and crime in our city, NDP tax hikes, growing our economy for future generations and improving our health-care system.”
While the NDP is running high in the polls, both Saunders and Mary Agnes Welch of Probe Research say it doesn’t mean the party can expect to paint Tuxedo orange.
“I think it is pretty safe to say they have a chance,” said Welch. “I can’t say they will win because it is a byelection and they can be strange. Tuxedo is fairly conservative.”
A Tory loss or squeaker of a win would not be good for the party, Saunders said.
“If the NDP can make serious inroads into (Tuxedo), it will show how deeply in trouble the PCs are,” she said. “The NDP would be able to say we are the party of suburban Winnipeg and not just the party of inner Winnipeg.”
The NDP can take two other positives from the poll, Welch said.
The party is virtually tied with the Tories in terms of support from men: 46 per cent back the PCs and 44 per cent support the NDP. Among Manitobans 55 and older, the NDP is six points higher than the Tories, at 48 per cent versus 42 per cent. Last March, the parties were tied at 44 per cent.
“To win over them, that also speaks to this solidifying of that honeymoon,” she said.
“It will be fascinating to see how long that lasts.”
The poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults was taken between May 28 and June 9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent 95 times out of 100.
kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca
Kevin Rollason
Reporter
Kevin Rollason is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He graduated from Western University with a Masters of Journalism in 1985 and worked at the Winnipeg Sun until 1988, when he joined the Free Press. He has served as the Free Press’s city hall and law courts reporter and has won several awards, including a National Newspaper Award. Read more about Kevin.
Every piece of reporting Kevin produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.
Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber.
Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.