It’s official. The Manitoba Progressive Conservatives have broken Tuxedo.
Once considered among the safest Tory seats in the province and absolutely the most secure seat in Winnipeg, Tuxedo fell Tuesday night to the governing NDP in a byelection that signalled definitively the PCs are a party in full rebuild mode.
The result — a 600-vote triumph by NDP candidate Carla Compton — confirmed that the near-death experience Stefanson suffered in last fall’s general election was no fluke. With her party going down to defeat, Stefanson won her seat by just 268 votes over an NDP candidate who only spent $1,500 on her campaign.
JOHN WOODS / FREE PRESS
Carla Compton, with Premier Wab Kinew, celebrate her win in Tuxedo’s by-election in Winnipeg Tuesday.
Tories tried to rationalize that result as a rogue, one-off result. Tuesday’s election result confirms it was, in fact, a harbinger of further disaster for the Tories.
It’s also a confirmation the NDP has become very, very good at elections. That realization alone should send chills down the spines of loyal Tories all over the province.
All things being equal, this byelection was always going to be a struggle for the Tories, given the timing.
When Stefanson announced in late April that she would formally resign her seat effective May 6, it put the PCs in a difficult spot.
Ideally, the Tories would have preferred Stefanson remain a bit longer in the legislature, to allow the honeymoon period for the new NDP government to dissipate to some degree. Waiting longer — until after the fall session for example — would have pushed the byelection into early 2025, where it might overlap with the April Tory leadership campaign.
Simply put, if the next leader of the PC party is not already elected to the legislature, then they will need a seat. If Stefanson held the seat until the end of 2024, Premier Wab Kinew would have likely waited until after the leadership convention to call a byelection.
But with a corporate board position calling her name, Stefanson could not wait. Kinew pounced on her somewhat early departure and called the byelection for mid-June, with full knowledge the Tories would be at a disadvantage.
And now, the worst possible outcome has come to fruition: the Tories have lost Tuxedo and, in so doing, have suffered an enormous blow to their brand heading into a leadership process where there are as of yet no declared candidates. You can bet the Tuxedo loss will most definitely affect the field of candidates for the leadership.
Not only is Tuxedo unavailable for the next three-and-a-half years, but the indignity of losing such a formerly safe seat will discourage potential candidates from outside the elected caucus from abandoning their day jobs to seek the leadership of a party so clearly in decline.
Many PC supporters will be shaking their heads at the Tuxedo result but, in so many ways, this was the culmination of a series of bad decisions made by members about who would lead their party.
Former Tory premier Brian Pallister won a historic majority mandate in 2016 but almost immediately unleashed a leadership style that strained relationships with key stakeholder groups and profoundly weakened public services. Pallister did cut taxes, but the cost of those tax expenditures severely compromised health care and education.
When Pallister was forced from his post in 2021, there was hope a new leader could put a new face on the governing party and repair the damage the man from Portage la Prairie had inflicted on the province. That hope was immediately snuffed out when Stefanson and her supporters manipulated the leadership process to make it nearly impossible for anyone to challenge her.
Former MP Shelly Glover did step forward but the leadership race was largely fought and won in party backrooms. long before a single membership was sold or vote was cast.
Stefanson’s manipulation of the leadership process did not bode well for her time as Manitoba’s first minister, a period in which she underperformed in almost every possible category. Lagging badly in the polls and headed to almost certain defeat, Stefanson’s hand-picked campaign architects unleashed arguably the most toxic election campaign in recent Manitoba political history, complete with homophobic and racist overtones.
When you look back at the leadership legacy of the PC party — from a combative but essentially incompetent Pallister, to a hapless Stefanson — it would have been difficult to find a strong argument for allowing the Tories to continue to represent Tuxedo.
The PCs lost the right to govern last fall, and this week, lost their safest seat in Winnipeg. If there is any silver lining, it is that barring any unexpected retirements from the elected caucus, the Tories will not be forced to wage electoral war again until October 2027.
That means three-and-a-half years to lick their wounds, learn from their mistakes and find a leader who can inspire and exceed expectations.
That is important work they can attend to with the confidence that they have, officially, hit rock bottom.
dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com
Dan Lett
Columnist
Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986. Read more about Dan.
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