Should voters in the Elmwood-Transcona federal byelection care if Tory candidate Colin Reynolds does not live in the riding?
Although Conservative party communications refused to comment, it appears that Reynolds — who grew up in the Valley Gardens neighbourhood in East Kildonan — does not currently live in the riding. That officially makes him a parachute candidate, albeit one who has deep ties to the riding in question.
Although it’s worth noting — all details of a candidate’s background should be fair game during an election — does being a parachute candidate put Reynolds at a disadvantage at the ballot box Sept. 16?
In his introductory campaign video posted to Facebook, Colin Reynolds, Conservative Party candidate for Elmwood-Transcona, Reynolds says he grew up in Valley Gardens and two of his adult children still live in Transcona.
Political observers who have followed election trends for many years doubt that it does.
Curtis Brown, a partner at Probe Research — the polling partner of the Free Press — said that political history has provided many more examples of how being a parachute candidate didn’t make a difference in the final outcome.
“I feel like it’s sometimes a bit more of an issue in rural ridings, where it’s more obvious if someone is or isn’t from the riding, but even then I can think of plenty of examples where it made absolutely no difference,” Brown said.
To his point, former prime ministers Jean Chrétien, Brian Mulroney and John Turner come to mind at the federal level, while Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, former B.C. premier Christy Clark and former Manitoba premier Brian Pallister (who lived in Portage la Prairie but ran in Winnipeg’s Fort Whyte constituency) — all won elections in places they didn’t live at the time.
Political scientist Paul Thomas said there are very few empirical studies on the impact of parachute candidates, likely because most experts know that in Canada, the local candidate is among the least important factors in determining voting preferences.
“A byelection might, theoretically, bring local residency into play more because local issues might be featured more prominently and the fate of the government is not at stake,” Thomas said. “However, a byelection at the end of summer is not likely to involve a lot of voter engagement, so the ground game of identifying and getting out the vote becomes the key factor.”
Of course, most political observers will tell you that the ultimate impact in such situations really depends on the circumstances and the candidate.
There are times when residency is an indication of the seriousness of the campaign in a particular riding.
For example, if a party is struggling to put a candidate in every riding in a provincial or federal general election, there will often be candidates of convenience showing up as the clock ticks down on the registration deadline; a party member or campaign volunteer with no real connection to the riding serves as a warm body on the ballot.
This strategy prevents the party from having to answer awkward questions about why it couldn’t field a full slate of candidates. However it’s also a pretty obvious admission a riding isn’t winnable and won’t be getting a lot of financial support from the central campaign.
(Caveat to previous paragraph: political history in this country is littered with examples of candidates of convenience putting their names on allegedly unwinnable ridings and winning. The NDP put a placeholder candidate in Tuxedo in the last provincial election and came within a few hundred votes of knocking off former premier Heather Stefanson.)
There are also instances in which parties shun truly local candidates and force in a centrally selected “star ” with no ties to the riding. Former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray’s ill-fated jump to federal politics in 2004 was a good case in point. Murray eventually picked St. James.
But is that the case for the Tories in Elmwood-Transcona? Reynolds appears to be a viable candidate with a resumé that should make the PCs competitive.
He has roots in the riding and mentions in his campaign-launch video that two of his adult children live in the riding.
If we set aside the issue or residency, does Reynolds look more like a viable candidate or a just-in-time placeholder? It’s fair to say he is objectively viable. Evidence of that can be found in NDP candidate Leila Dance’s urgent news conference Thursday claiming that she, and not Reynolds, is the choice of organized labour.
It’s interesting to note that for many decades, the riding was considered to be the quintessential bastion of pro-labour, working-class values. But is that still the case?
Thomas noted that former NDP MP Daniel Blaikie, whose resignation triggered the byelection, complained that the last federal electoral boundaries commission changes were “transforming what was mainly an urban, inner-city type riding” into more of a classic, more conservative suburban riding.
“The demographic shifts taking place within Elmwood-Transcona make it a less working-class, unionized, lower socio-economic community,” Thomas said.
What does it all mean for the outcome of the byelection?
A parachute candidate representing a party that is leading national polls, against an NDP candidate desperate to retain the seat, in a riding that has undergone significant demographic changes.
Should make for an excellent byelection-night office pool.
dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com
Dan Lett
Columnist
Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986. Read more about Dan.
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