More than 400 years ago (nobody knows exactly when), someone (nobody knows exactly who) observed that rats had an innate ability to sense when a building was going to collapse and flee before being crushed.
Over the years, the legend of soothsaying rats grew until it found its way into the lexicon of politics, where observers began to describe those who abandon a political party — voters, staff and elected officials — were tantamount to “rats fleeing a sinking ship.”
There is little hard science to back up the idea rats can sense impending disaster. But there is an abundance of anecdotal evidence confirming that people who support a particular government or party will indeed jump ship after divining they are headed for political disaster.
Longtime Trudeau ally Seamus O’Reagan left in July. (Adrian Wyld / The Canadian Press files)
Which brings us to present day Ottawa, and news that rats of several different kinds are beginning to flee the good ship Trudeau.
The Globe and Mail reported Monday morning five of the senior-most chiefs of staff — the highest ranking political staffer in a ministerial office — had or were going to leave their jobs. This news comes on the heels of a decision last week by Jeremy Broadhurst to leave his post as national campaign director.
And then there are the elected officials. Although the exact timing of the next election is not certain (it must be held by October 2025 but can be triggered at any time by a vote of non-confidence), several key member’s of Trudeau’s elected caucus have already announced will not seek re-election.
Longtime Trudeau ally Seamus O’Reagan, who had served as labour minister, left in July, and it has been widely reported that Transportation Minister Pablo Rodriguez, Trudeau’s Quebec lieutenant, will announce soon he is not running in the next election.
These departures are occurring as Trudeau hosts a national caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C., where it’s expected he will hear renewed demands that he relinquish leadership of the party he brought back to power in 2015. A few dissidents within the caucus, largely fringe MPs who pose no immediate threat to serve in cabinet or challenge for the leadership, have already publicly called for Trudeau to step down.
Is this the beginning of the end of Trudeau’s leadership?
There is churn in every political party in the year prior to an election, as veteran staff and elected officials look for opportunities away from the pressure of Ottawa politics. So, at what point do departures signal a lack of internal confidence in a leader?
There’s no hard and fast rule for what critical mass in departures looks like.
A dozen members of former Progressive Conservative premier Heather Stefanson’s caucus decided not to run in the 2023 election. A few of those were definitely well-earned retirements, but others were quite obviously leaving to avoid what looked like an electoral massacre waiting to happen.
In the end, the number of retirements combined with a fairly steady flow of political staff, did indeed serve as a harbinger of electoral disaster for Stefanson.
To be fair, the Liberals have not yet experienced enough departures to say with any certainty that the party has lost faith in its leader. However, caucus meetings held a year or so out from an election do seem to have a tendency to decide the fate of parties and their leaders.
You may remember that former Tory premier Brian Pallister resigned in the summer of 2021 shortly after being given an ultimatum by his caucus: leave or suffer the indignity of a public campaign to force you out. Those doing the pushing even gave Pallister the draft of an open letter calling for his resignation that he was told would be published in local newspapers.
Pallister no doubt remembered how former NDP premier Greg Selinger fought back against a caucus revolt and ended up destroying himself and his party in the process. Whether it was Selinger’s ill-fated attempts to stay, or his own refusal to suffer the indignity of an open letter from MLAs and other supporters, Pallister chose to step down.
You can bet the choir calling for Trudeau to step down will grow louder over the course of this week. If Trudeau does not heed those calls, he is almost certainly headed to electoral disaster. Particularly if byelections slated for next week (including one in Manitoba) result in more Liberal losses.
Agreeing to step down would not necessarily guarantee the Liberals a victory in the next election. The Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre have a sizeable lead right now, one that Trudeau on his own has been unable to shrink.
If the Liberals were to pick the right leader with the right message, at least the party would have a fighting chance.
But only if Trudeau steps down now before the exits are clogged with fleeing rats.
dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com
Dan Lett
Columnist
Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986. Read more about Dan.
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