Some people didn’t like it, but Canada’s concessions to U.S. President Donald Trump — as well as its threat of retaliatory tariffs and other protectionist measures — was exactly what the doctor ordered to stave off, or at least delay, a punishing trade war that would have been catastrophic for Canada.
From the very beginning of the potential trade breakdown — after Trump, in November, first threatened Canada with a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian exports to the U.S. — the federal and provincial governments played their cards perfectly.
They attempted to find ways to stroke Trump’s ego, giving him several political “wins” on border security and on the fight against illicit drugs.
When Trump continued to threaten tariffs as recently as Sunday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and provincial premiers did what they had to do: Ottawa announced a 25 per cent tariff of its own on U.S. imports and provinces such as Manitoba made plans to target American goods, including taking U.S. alcohol products off the shelves at liquor stores.
Canadians were united and their collective actions spurred a renewed sense of national pride.
When those steps still didn’t change Trump’s mind, Trudeau continued to make concessions Monday during two telephone calls with the U.S. president. And it worked.
By Monday afternoon, Trump — who claimed victory on border security and the flow of illicit drugs into the U.S. — delayed the imposition of tariffs for at least 30 days.
Canada got the outcome it wanted and gave up little in return.
In fact, most of the so-called concessions were measures that were either already in place, like combating organized crime, fentanyl trafficking and money laundering (and appointing a “fentanyl czar”), or were slightly modified to give the appearance that Canada was making concessions to Trump.
It gave the U.S. president enough “wins” to feed his fragile ego and to show his supporters he is “standing up for the safety of U.S. citizens.” It was enough for him to call off his trade war dogs.
For Canada, it was a brilliant display of skillful diplomacy.
Trudeau and the provinces made all the right moves at the right time and Canada got the outcome it wanted. It avoided a trade war that would have plunged the country into recession, including the loss of hundreds of thousand of jobs and widespread bankruptcies. The auto industry alone would have been crushed.
But it doesn’t end there. Canada will have to continue to stroke Trump’s ego and ensure there are sufficient measures in place to convince him to either extend the 30-day delay on tariffs, or cancel them outright.
In fact, this will be the kind of political gamesmanship Canada will have to engage in over the next four years to manage the antics of an irrational, unpredictable and narcissistic U.S. president.
Some people confused Canada’s strategy of stroking Trump’s ego with giving into a tyrant who is plotting to take over Canada. Some even compared it to the Second World War, where making concessions to Trump would have been like capitulating to Adolf Hitler. It’s a ridiculous and entirely nonsensical analogy.
The concessions the federal and provincial governments made in no way compromised Canada’s sovereignty or its national security. If anything, the events of the past few weeks strengthened Canada’s resolve and reinvigorated a newfound sense of patriotism.
Canada stood up to the U.S. with threats of retaliatory tariffs when it needed to, but it also never stopped negotiating behind the scenes to get the outcome it wanted.
It may be Trudeau’s greatest achievement in office as he prepares to step down as prime minister next month.
It may be Trudeau’s greatest achievement in office as he prepares to step down as prime minister next month.
Mostly, though, it was a win for Canada. It was a testament to how Canadians come together in times of crisis by standing up for the country they cherish.
It also reminded Canada of the need to do more to diversify its export markets, to make further inroads into reducing interprovincial trade barriers and to “buy Canadian.”
Make no mistake, Canada needs the U.S. market to maintain its standard of living. As much as Canada would like to expand its exports to non-U.S. destinations (it has already made some progress on that in recent decades), it’s never going to replace the wealth this country enjoys from selling goods and services to American markets.
Which is why Canada needs to continue to promote the benefits of bilateral trade with its southern neighbour.
The next 30 days will be crucial for Canada. The federal and provincial governments will have to continue to negotiate behind the scenes and respond to whatever hare-brained, irrational idea pops into the mind of the U.S. president. It’s a tough file to manage. And Trump’s tariffs may still come next month. If they do, Canada will have to respond in kind.
But the upshot is this: today was supposed to be the first day of a trade war that would have crippled the Canadian economy. And Canada skillfully maneuvered its way out of it.
That’s a big win.
tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca
Tom Brodbeck
Columnist
Tom Brodbeck is a columnist with the Free Press and has over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.
Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.
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